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• Valuation

Discounted
Cash Flow

Estimate the value implied by operating assumptions and future free cash flow.

Enterprise value$12.48M4.7x revenue
Equity value$10.38MImplied price per share $42.16 · TV share of EV 86%

Free cash flow forecast

Unlevered free cash flow, USD millions

Value bridge

PV of forecast cash flows$2M
PV of terminal value$11M
Enterprise value$12M
Forecast drivers and projection detail
DriverY1Y2Y3Y4Y5
Rev growth %
EBIT margin %
D&A % rev
CapEx % rev
ΔNWC % Δrev
Revenue3.03.33.73.94.2
FCF0.30.40.50.50.6
PV(FCF)0.30.30.40.40.4
Terminal value assumptions
Terminal Value
?
The steady long-term growth rate assumed after the explicit forecast period.
%
?
The valuation multiple assumed when selling or valuing the business at the end of a forecast.
x

Implied g from exit multiple: 5.70%

Gordon PV(TV)
$7M
Exit Multiple PV(TV)
?
The valuation multiple assumed when selling or valuing the business at the end of a forecast.
$15M
Additional analysis
WACC \ g1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
6.50%$49.08$51.12$53.66$56.93$61.30
7.50%$44.05$45.39$47.00$48.97$51.44
8.50%$40.12$41.06$42.16$43.46$45.02
9.50%$36.90$37.59$38.38$39.29$40.36
10.50%$34.17$34.70$35.29$35.96$36.73
Reverse DCF — what's priced in?
$

Implied revenue growth: 15.52%

Valuation charts
Tornado — price sensitivity
Methodology

Methodology keeps the DCF bridge visible. Free cash flow is projected from operating assumptions, discounted at WACC, extended through terminal value, then bridged from enterprise value to equity value.

Free cash flow (unlevered)
FCFt=EBITt(1τ)+D&AtCapExtΔNWCtFCF_t = EBIT_t \cdot (1 - \tau) + D\&A_t - CapEx_t - \Delta NWC_t
Present value (mid-year convention)
PVt=FCFt(1+WACC)t0.5PV_t = \dfrac{FCF_t}{(1 + WACC)^{t - 0.5}}
Terminal value (Gordon, 1959)
TVN=FCFN(1+g)WACCg,g<WACCTV_N = \dfrac{FCF_N \cdot (1 + g)}{WACC - g}, \quad g < WACC
Equity bridge (Modigliani-Miller, 1958)
Equity=EV+CashDebt\text{Equity} = EV + Cash - Debt
Price per share
P=EV+CashDebtShares=12+130=$42.16P = \dfrac{\text{EV} + \text{Cash} - \text{Debt}}{\text{Shares}} = \dfrac{12 + 1 - 3}{0} = \$42.16

References

  1. Irving Fisher, The Theory of Interest, 1930.Reference context for time value of money, discounting, present value, and interest-rate mathematics.
  2. Franco Modigliani and Merton H. Miller, The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment, American Economic Review, 1958.Reference context for capital structure, cost of capital, and enterprise/equity valuation framing.
  3. Myron J. Gordon, Dividends, Earnings, and Stock Prices, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1959.Reference context for constant-growth valuation and terminal-growth constraints.

For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice.